It should be noted, that for anyone who has read my stuff or will be reading it for the first time, to say I am long-winded is the understatement of the century. I know about as much about being concise as I do about actually writing correctly, from an editorial point of view.
Yeah, not much. So, you have been warned about that, too.
For my second entry on this blog, I will first tell you that there is one thing I won’t touch on much. And what that is would be considered ironic considering what I did for the better part of 10 years:
Recruiting
When I started doing this, I was as big of a fanatic about the stars as anyone. But back then it made almost no sense to get caught up in all the hoopla, because there were only a handful of recruiting analysts who covered the entire country.
Tom Lemming, Allen Wallace, Max Emfinger, Bill Buchalter, etc.
They distributed their stuff through bi-annual magazines, and in the case of Lemming, he actually had a toll-number you could call, pay the per-minute-charge and sort through a menu that let you hear the latest on the nation, the region, a conference or a specific team.
Yes, I called the number…..more than once.
I’m so ashamed.
But five guys? Six? Seven? Trying to cover an entire country?
Yeah, that’s not happening.
The kids you heard about were often the ones who had coaches who were dialing up these recruiting guys to let them know about such and such kid. To say the coverage then was comprehensive in any way is laughable.
Guess what?
It’s only marginally better today.
Even with big ole’ recruiting networks like Scout, Rivals, 24/7 and a few sites from a sub-division of ESPN, you still don’t have enough people to cover the entire nation.
Think about the fact that there are over 300 million people in this country. Of that number, approximately 1.5 million play high school football.
Of that number, approximately a quarter of a million will be playing their senior year.
So, 250,000 kids who technically are able to hold a scholarship offer if a school so desires to give them one.
Go into any database right now of all those recruiting sites and tell me how many total kids have profiles, even if it’s just a name and where they are from.
It’s not a quarter of a million.
Well, since we know that out of this quarter-million kids, they can’t all play football all that well, and not all of them could get offers even if they were good enough, take into account how many scholarships are out there for high school athletes each year.
If you take the total number of scholarships each member institution of the FBS is allowed to hand out each academic year (25) and multiply that by the total number of schools (120 last season), you end up with 3,000 scholarships.
Now, there are special circumstances like USC, which lost 30 scholarships over three years due to NCAA violations. But let’s just go with the average for right now.
So, that’s 3,000 scholarships available for a pool of prep athletes that is around 250,000.
That’s a .012 chance any kid is going to get an offer, strictly from a mathematical perspective.
Speaking of that 3,000 number, go into those aforementioned recruiting databases and see if there are at least that number of prospects with profiles, even if it’s just a name and where they are from.
Nope, they aren’t even close to that either.
So, just from a numbers standpoint, there is no way that all of these recruiting services combined are going to be able to track them all. There just isn’t.
POLITICS/RANKINGS
Another thing I learned as a member of this business was that rankings are achieved in a variety of ways. I was with the original Rivals as well as The Insiders, which became Scout.com which eventually became a property of Fox Sports.
And how those rankings sometimes manifested themselves was a byproduct of the same thing that you see goes into voting for awards like the Heisman, the number one team in the coaching poll and pretty much everything that involves someone telling you what they think.
We know how the Heisman works, and much of this can be applied to recruiting rankings, the AP Poll, etc.
First, you are going to look at the players you are most familiar with. Whether that means you cover a team on which they play, you have seen them on TV the most or maybe they are playing at your Alma Mater. There are a lot of reasons that go into your familiarity of a player.
In recruiting it’s the same as analysts are going to have a better handle on a kid’s ability if they have actually seen that ability firsthand. I have often heard fans bristle about how a kid didn’t make a combine which was put on by a recruiting service, and inexplicably that kid’s ranking either dropped very soon after or they certainly didn’t rise. If you as a fan are going to get mad at a recruiting service, thinking that they dropped that kid simply because he wouldn’t go to one of their organized combines, you better be mad at every single FBS team, because they do the same thing.
I know that many schools bill these football Summer camps as an opportunity for young local kids to get to meet and learn from legit position coaches from their local FBS institution as well as around the country. There’s some truth to that, of course. But these Summer camps are also ideal opportunities for these college coaches of the teams hosting the event to evaluate some talent firsthand.
For a few years I was able to actually cover these camps, and I have seen some kids come in as relative unknowns and leave with an offer in hand. Conversely, I have seen some kids come in with a bunch of offers, including one from Nebraska, and not long after they left the camp, Nebraska stopped recruiting them altogether.
That’s why these camps are so valuable to these coaches. It gives them a chance to see a player in person doing their drills, running their plays, thereby giving them a much better idea of what this kid can or can’t do.
Now, I am not saying that some of these recruiting guys don’t knock a kid down a notch if he doesn’t attend one of their camps he’s been begging the prep athlete to attend. But I would say that isn’t the norm.
Once you get beyond just the familiarity with these recruits, then you get into the actual ability to evaluate.
I have outlined this before, but it’s a huge part of why I don’t give rankings much credence. So, it is worth repeating.
In the NFL you have teams with talent scouts. That’s all they do – evaluate talent. They have budgets in the millions, and unlike college coaches who are limited by NCAA rules in how often they can evaluate a kid in person at a camp or game, these scouts can go to all the games, and they also have all the time in the world to evaluate film.
And not highlight film either.
A college coach simply doesn’t have the time to watch game film on every potential recruit out there. But that’s just part of the job of an NFL scout. And it’s good film, too. Not that mostly grainy, wide angle crap that sometimes is hard just to watch much less good enough to give you a quality angle on any one particular player. And Scouts get the actual cuts of the games, meaning they get side angle views, from the back the front – everything. College coaches get this side angle shot from a crow’s nest and that’s about it.
And speaking of time, that’s all Scouts have. This is all they do. Their entire job is to find the best talent available.
They don’t have to coach. They certainly don’t have to recruit. They don’t have to babysit any of the players. They scout. That’s what they do. That’s all they do.
Also, they have this thing called the NFL Combine. It’s an event, and it really is one nowadays as the NFL Network actually covers it live.
Well, this combine is a place where unless you are a guaranteed top five pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, it’s where you want to be. It’s where you would beg to be. This is where millions of dollars could be made if you do well.
There isn’t a single high school combine where you can say that every top flight recruit wants to go, can go or is even inclined to go.
So, in one nice little setting in Indianapolis you have some of the best up and coming football talent from all over the country and from every collegiate division of the sport.
That doesn’t even include the Senior Bowl, which is another huge forum for potential stars.
At the prep level you now have a multitude of all-star games. And nowadays these organizations that represent these All-American events are giving kids official invites even before their junior year, hoping that they will either maintain their level of play for the next two years or at least be good enough that it wasn’t a complete reach to offer them a roster spot in the first place. They do that, because they know that most of these kids will take the first All-American spot offered to him now that the U.S. Army All-American Bowl isn’t the only show in town.
You see what this is all saying?
With the NFL you basically have unlimited resources and man-power to find the best athletes out there, and you actually get to choose them in a draft or in free agency versus having to recruit a kid for two years and hope you can get them in the end.
And how many of these NFL teams STILL can’t seem to draft worth a damn?
Seriously, how many?
You get a handful of teams that are lauded for having a real impact, getting instant contributors on the first day and then building their team for the future on every draft pick after that. The rest can’t seem to recognize a good player if they came up and hit them over the back of the head.
With that very harsh and obvious reality, just how likely is it that a prep player will deserve his star ranking, bad or good? And how accurate is that star ranking, really, when you figure in that there is perhaps another 50 percent of prep athletes out there who these analysts don’t even know exist?
They aren’t going to rank some kid a five star if he can’t play. But I know kids who have been viewed as five stars who weren’t ranked as such, because people were convinced that kid wasn’t going to qualify, academically.
What the hell does that have to do with anything? I don’t care if he can’t spell his own name. If he has five star ability, rank him a five star.
Oh, and this doesn’t even touch on an analyst ranking a player or a recruiting class high because he knows the head coach.
Tom Lemming and Bill Callahan anyone? You remember that, right?
Lemming was gushing over Callahan’s classes, even when they weren’t that good. Why? They were pals. Husker fans didn’t care though. All they saw was the high ranking and suddenly, Lemming is the greatest recruiting analyst on earth, because he had the intelligence and courage to see the Husker recruiting class as much better than all those other people and services, which were quite obviously overrated to begin with when it came to evaluating talent.
After Callahan was ousted and the gushing stopped, Lemming became just another guy who didn’t deserve to have a job.
And here’s another aspect to the rankings that isn’t huge as far as overall impact, but it’s there to be sure:
Connections
Any media outlet out there, and i mean from sports to local news, politics to world events – if they are worth their salt, they have connections.
John Clayton, an NFL Insider for ESPN. Wow, listen to this guy. How does he know all that stuff?
Really? You honestly just asked that question?
You know darn well how he knows all that information. He talks to people. But more than that, he talks to the people who know.
Welcome to the media.
Outside of what is right in front of you and obvious, if you want to know, you have to know who to ask. And, of course, they have to be willing to tell you.
At the collegiate level it could be anyone. Coaches, boosters, trainers, people in football operations, alumni or even current players.
One thing I was taught early on in the recruiting business was that these players are your “IN.” Get to know them through the recruiting process, and if they go to the school you cover, you got an inside nobody else might have.
I was taught that, but it never took hold. I personally didn’t like the idea of cultivating a relationship with this kid for the sole purpose of bleeding them for information at a later date.
But I was never an insider, so to speak. And that’s a big reason why.
You think about the market of Lincoln, Nebraska, and it’s really nothing in the grand scheme of things. It’s certainly nothing compared to big markets like L.A., Dallas, New York and Miami. Not only is it your job to cultivate these relationships, but you need to do it quickly. The pressure to be first in those big markets is almost suffocating.
I am one who is of the opinion that even here in this local market which seems a generation behind the big city mind-set everywhere else, it’s still cut throat – a little too much so for my liking.
But it’s nothing, and I mean nothing compared to what people in the media of these big markets have to endure. Your job literally hangs on your ability to get more stuff first than the other guy. Day in and day out, week to week – for as long as you hope to have a job.
But it’s present here, just like anywhere else.
But getting the connection is one thing. Maintaining it is another. And one of the easiest way to maintain it is to not piss off the person you talk to, and it wouldn’t hurt to be nice to them now and again.
Define nice?
Nice doesn’t mean everything you write about them is sunshine. Maybe it means that if something goes to hell, you won’t jump on that beckoning bandwagon to bury someone who might have it coming. When everyone else is calling a coach a raving lunatic, maybe you will describe them instead as passionate to a fault. There are lots of ways to curry favor. You want the Mayor to call you when something happens or at least pick up the phone if you call them? Not blasting them for being what you would refer to as a moron of epic proportions is a good start, even if you think they are.
Well, it works the same in recruiting.
It was during the head-coaching tenure of Frank Solich, and there was a dual-threat quarterback from Arkansas, Will Hunt. He played at Springdale, which is a perennial powerhouse in the state, and is used to winning pretty much every game it plays.
Well, Will wasn’t the tallest kid, standing around 6-1, but he could run which he had to do most of the time as his offensive line was horrendous.
This was a kid who wasn’t just interested in Nebraska, he loved them. He had even written some poetry about them as an even younger kid when he envisioned himself an option QB at the next level.
I talked to him and his mom almost on a regular basis. On film I loved the kid. He wasn’t the best I had ever seen, but he sure fit what Nebraska did and this was a kid I knew they could get.
They never offered him. He would eventually go to Virginia Tech, where he among others, were looked at to try and fill the void left by Michael Vick, who was off to the NFL.
Now, he didn’t do much at Virginia Tech. Michael’s younger brother Marcus, eventually took over that team and Will ended up getting his degree and calling it a career.
So, maybe Nebraska was right, but I was still pissed they didn’t offer him, especially when you consider the shaky play at the position following the departure of Eric Crouch. Would Hunt not have been able to compete with players like Jamal Lord, Mike Stuntz and Joe Chrisman? I thought he could have, but that was just me.
Anyway, I thought they were idiots for not offering, but you can’t just go out and tell everyone who will listen that you think they are idiots for not offering. When you cover the team on a daily basis, that probably isn’t going to make your life all that pleasant, from the coaches who think you are the actual idiot to the players who think you might not be giving the current guys enough credit.
To me, that’s another way of being nice.
You don’t have to constantly say they are great. You just have to make sure that you aren’t constantly saying they aren’t, either.
Well, back to the recruiting rankings, if you have a connection with a coach, whether it’s the head coach, an assistant or maybe even a G.A., you might want to give them a little love now and again. Maybe a three star becomes a four star. Maybe this “tweener” who everyone else thinks is a waterboy, you do your best to make sound like a legit receiver.
I can tell you that had I the power to do that, meaning I was friendly with a Husker coach and also had an impact on the recruiting rankings, I would have done the same thing. It’s not about not biting the hand that feeds you. It’s about feeding the other hand in return.
You don’t want to be stupid about it. You can’t go ranking a one-legged kid a five-star running back. But maybe three stars? Yeah, maybe.
You do see what this scenic route on this topic is saying, don’t you?
It’s not to say Lemming doesn’t know what he’s talking about most times. He’s apparently seen enough film and been around enough coaches, he should have learned at least something if only through osmosis. And I believe that the majority of people will give you a good honest assessment of a kid’s talent, if they have something to reference.
But try this little experiment sometime:
Look at the commitment list of every team in the FBS the day before signing day. Nowadays those lists are probably close to complete. But look at them. Actually, take a screen shot. Yeah, that’s quality use of your hard drive. Take a screen shot of those lists, taking note of where everyone is ranked, height, weight, etc.
Then, the day after signing day, go look at those lists again. Take another screenshot and compare.
Now, with the big schools you are likely not to see a lot of change as everyone who is good enough to even play at that program, has probably been covered ad nauseam.
But sometimes, just sometimes you will see names on that list the day after that just a couple days prior, weren’t.
I’m not talking about kids who made up their mind on the last day either, though, that will be how it’s billed to you to make it sound like someone knew it all along and couldn’t say anything until now. I’m talking about kids who weren’t even in the database until the school they committed to and signed with, released that PDF regaling everyone about their latest recruiting class.
It will be a name, where they are from, what school, height, weight and stats. You shouldn’t be shocked to see that they are curiously similar if not exactly the same as the measurables on the release from their future school. But wait, there’s no film. Oh, and there is no story. So how in the heck are they three stars? How did they get four?
Of that list of players, whatever school has the most nobodies with no stars who became some bodies with three or more, they probably have some pretty decent connections or at least, are trying to develop some.
Welcome to the media. Welcome to rankings. Welcome to how polls are treated.
So, the ultra-long-winded message here is that there are a lot of common sense reasons why you shouldn’t buy into rankings and that kind of thing. Nobody can predict the future. But there are also other reasons, most if not all of them you realize, but conveniently ignore as long as your team looks good.
There are guys like Steve Sipple and Brian Christopherson, both with the Lincoln Journal Star, who I KNOW will put their best foot forward when it comes to voting for who they believe is the best player when they vote for the Heisman each year. They both have a vote, and I truly believe that they will give it a fair shake.
But just as convinced about that I am equally certain that there are others who will vote for someone who played at their former school, in their former conference, in the region of the country in which they played or played for a coach whom they know – before they finally get around to sort of, but not really evaluating just who has done what that year.
And if there is that kind of bias when you know that everyone will find out who of the over thousand voters for the Heisman, picked, to assume it doesn’t exist in any other area not nearly as focused upon or publicized – well, it’s kind of naive.
I would never take away from the ability of legit analysts to evaluate talent. I know I couldn’t do it. I don’t see what they can see. That’s not what this is about. it’s about all the other stuff, and it’s the other stuff which makes me take rankings, polls and anything requiring an opinion, with a huge grain of salt.
I’ll still talk about the polls though.
But not recruiting.
I’ll wait to figure out how good a player will be in college, the day after they depart it.